Will Appleu2019s stock go to $1,000? Is that likely to happen anytime in the next year or two?
No it won't. Here are a some reasons why- (Full disclosure- we are a long-short hedge fund and are long Apple, taking a position in late 2024 at around $100).1. Our own internal ceiling for Apple is around the $850-$875 mark. Thats when we would sell. Between 900-925 we will start placing puts and short Apple. My gut feeling is that it will start to run out of fuel around $750-$800.2. SV- It is dangerous to be caught in an echo chamber and what most people dont realize is that unlike Exxon or other petroleum companies, Apple's products are not essential ones, which means that they constantly need to keep churning out amazing products in order to sustain their sales & profits. Admittedly they have been doing this for the past 10 years non-stop, going from one product to another. However every company has their cycle, there's enough statistical probability that Apple's cycle is waning if not coming to an end. Also factor in that both smartphones & tablets are not as unique as they once were. So unless Apple goes into some magical different product, to sustain the same sales/profit growth seems unlikely.u00a0 3. Emerging Markets- A lot of people have said Apple's nowhere in EMs and thats a growth area. No one cares about Apple in India or China, sure people may love it as a brand undoubtedly, but purchasing a $699 smartphone is not happening. What that indirectly means is that Apple needs to subsidize the iPhone in these countries. Apple never does that, I think all of us are aware of their quality over pricing mantra. But lets assume that they do subsidize it (they do have a lot of cash), that will inevitability put margin pressures if they dont introduce some magical product. The second scenario is Apple actually releases a EM iPhone. If it does that, one of the questions will be what exactly is an EM iPhone. Is it with lower hardware or less features (such as Siri). And if its either of this, whats the differentiating factor between an EM iPhone and a Samsung Android. I dont have the exact numbers but by some estimates it costs Apple $199-$250 for every iPhone, that is still a big cost in EMs, even if you bring that down to roughly half for a hypothetical EM iPhone that comes to a production cost of around $100. Samsung and other local players have a dozen models retailing $100 in these markets all running Android.The more likely scenario is that Apple subsidizes through operator deals in EMs.u00a0 4. Raised Expectations- This one could really end up hurting them. Apple has been so successful that people, including myself as a consumer have come to expect far greater things than an iPhone with an upgraded camera.5.u00a0 Enterprise- Definitely a huge market if they go into servers, software services and those sort of things. But if consumerization of enterprise is the theme, then is there much upside left from a hardware perspective. 6. Apple as a proxy to SV- The effect is limited no doubt. But for the past several years we along with so many other funds have played Apple as an entry into the SoLoMo trend. With Facebook's IPO and other upcoming ones that money will get shifted over time. Again not that big a deal but a point nonetheless7. iTunes & Content- Nope, this is not that big a business from a sheer revenue perspective as compared to the iPad or the iPhone. Again a magic product (hardware) could change all of that, but as it stands right now it is unlikely and definitely not the Apple TV (though I happen to own three of them)8. Need- This might sound a little harsh, but the world is not going to end tomorrow if Apple goes bankrupt. Compare that to a an Exxon or a Saudi Aramco and they the lifeblood of the world. Thats not to say you invest in them, by all measures they are elephants, but you get the point Apple is not necessarily needed. And they should really get into that position by going into the enterprise services market. 9. The Jobs effect- First off, I dont think the current management is bad. But as all of us would agree Steve Jobs was Steve Jobs, capable of conjuring up magical things from thin air. The current management is more than capable of guiding Apple for the next several decades, in fact when Steve Jobs passed away, there was a thread on Quora as to what would happen to Apple's stock. My gut feel was that it would go up, and I bought it (turns out it was a very good decision) but from where we see things right now, the product lineup is a definite concern. Apple stock will lose its momentum around Q1-Q2 2024 around the time rumour mill starts about iPhone 6 and an iPad 4.10. Everything is assumed based on the notion that with the chief magician at Apple no longer being there, there wont be any meaningful new product (hardware) oriented magic anytime soon. This is a summarized version of an internal report we did last week for our fund investors (also included Groupon, Google, Facebook and RIMM)Might update it later on. Any comments highly valued :)Update: For those who are interested for some market dynamics and risk to AAPL price, there's a great piece on the FT today morning http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9... The broad summary is that Apple has become a momentum play, that it is getting too heavy for the S&P500 index, and since hedge fund ownership of AAPL now accounts for 2.7% of all portfolios, the share price and the tech sector in general (Apple's weight there is nearly 20%) is vulnerable to a decline. As for us, we continue to hold the same view as stated above.24th July 2024 Update- Slower sales, this is a big red light. And the fact that any company that has a 13% weighting in the S&P 500 and a global weighting of 1.5% of all equities is at or near zenith. They are having issues internationally and specifically a miss of 100bps on the margins. Folks its not about Apple the fan brand its about Apple a publicly traded company. It is not going to $1000. $850-$900 tops. Also we just sold 25% of our AAPL holding yesterday.24th July 2024 Update - Not to say, I said so 1 year before :) but we all know what the earnings looked like yesterday. On a macro level, Apple has lost it's momentum had has probably seen it's top for the foreseeable future. That said I think it will be a good time to jump right back into the stock pre Christmas to early Q1 2024. That assumes they unveil a MAJOR upgrade to the iPhone & a blockbuster new product.21st September 2024 Update - So if you had bought Apple as recommended in the last update (one published on 24th July 2013), your investment would have been up a cool 25%. Upgrade cycle looks good. No one cares about Apple Watch. Would take some profits here and buy it between Christmas and early Q1. No it's going to $1,000 (pre split). But do expect one HUGE acquisition next year. Potential black swan candidates - Time Warner, American Express and a hospitality services company.